1, the best player happens to be the best team
The probability of winning an MVP: 91.7% (eleven out of 12)
Best team record of the league well understood, what is the best player? We define this concept often with the WARP to measure, namely Wins Above Replacement Player (player victory contribution), mainly to measure a player's contribution to the team's contribution to the added value, the greater the value, on behalf of The greater the contribution to the team.
When that number ranks first in the league and at the same time leads the NBA record, the player can lock in the MVP almost. Since the coalition's 1980-81 campaign to switch to MVP by media votes, only one exception occurred during those years, with a much higher WARP in the 1997-98 season and a record-breaking performance with the Bulls like Carl Malone in the MVP The battle lost to Jordan.
According to this template, there are now two candidates to enter this ranks, one is Harden, according to the FiveThirtyEight website CARM-Elo system and ESPN's BPI (basketball strength index) forecast shows that the rocket this season's record in the league second. And the other candidate is Stephen Curry, who, despite only 37% of his three-pointers, has the same numbers for both MVPs as he did with MVP in 2014-15.
If Curry is able to keep his shot percentage of nearly 58% on the arc, he will be back in MVP's competition once his three-pointer picks up. Although Curry currently averages only 32.3 minutes per game, his RPM ranks second in the league behind only Harden.
2, the top 5 players in the best team
The probability of winning an MVP: 66.7% (15 out of 10)
Curry's battle for MVP is undoubtedly a more realistic option by this category, he currently ranks sixth in the WARP ranking, fourth in the player's winning percentage and fourth in the WARP per minute PER value (player efficiency value) is equivalent. The question now is whether Curry will be affected by other superstars in the MVP vote? Durant in particular, in the outside world, Adu double MVP portfolio superior.
Curry may not be the hottest MVP at this point, but his chances of winning the MVP are actually undervalued, given the Warriors' hope of winning the league's best record and the likely Currie's recovery in the future.
3, the best players produced in the top 5 / top 10 teams in the league
MVP Probability (Top 10 in the league, up from 5): 42.9% (3 out of 7)
Probability of winning an MVP (Top 5 in the league): 30.8% (4 out of 13)
There is no good argument to suggest that WARP leaders will have a greater chance of winning the MVP, but when the player's team is ranked in the league's top ten, they have a chance to be included in the MVP's discussion.
Harden and James are the best players to win the MVP at the moment, with LeBron currently at WARP and VORP (a player-replaceable difference that mainly reflects the difference between the player's presence and the average player in that position) Harden slightly ahead. After a slow start, the Knights are back on track, with FiveThirtyEight predicting they will finish fourth in the league, while ESPN's BPI index predicts Knight to be fifth, and both systems will not return Little Thomas to the future Factor into account.
If James can continue to maintain the current level, then this will undoubtedly be his closest since the post-Miami MVP opportunities, according to previous observations, Zhan Huang tend to play the MVP level in the second half of the season performance.
For Harden, the outside world questions whether he can play such a high level of performance in the case of cooperation with Paul. Inevitably, because of Paul's presence, Harden's data may be declining, and he can use efficiency to make up?
4, top 10 / top 20 players in the best team
The odds of winning an MVP (top 20 in the league, but out of the top 10): 5.6% (1 out of 18)
Probability of winning an MVP (Top 10 in the league): 5% (1 out of 20)
Historically, MVPs tend to award the best players in the best teams ever, even if he's
WARP value is not high, but this does not affect his selection status. So that's exactly why Irving is a hot MVP now, as the Celtics he leads play the No. 1 record in the league.
Owen scoring data and Cavaliers last season, quite the same, based on such data, he did not even last season, was selected for the best team. But as a core member of the league's best-defensive team, Irving's efforts on the defensive end have been greatly improved, which made him more valuable this season and Owen also excelled at the crucial moment. He is currently
WARP ranked ninth, VORP ranked seventh, RPM ranked eighth, Owen winning MVP the only way is to lead the Celtics in the record overwhelming warriors and rockets.
5, the top 20 players in the top 5 teams
Probability of winning MVP: 2% (2 out of 101 selected)
There are only two MVPs in this category, Iverson for the 2000-01 season and Nash for the 2005-06 season, and as today's MVP discussions place more emphasis on high-end data, such players are unlikely to win the MVP.
6, the best players produced after the league ranked 20 teams
The probability of winning an MVP: 0% (no one in 5)
Wesbrook won the MVP last season and the Thunder ranked 10th in the league, so so far (after the MVP voting system reform), there has not been an MVP from the top 10 teams, Undoubtedly the bad news is that they currently rank third and fourth respectively in WARP, third and sixth in VORP.
According to the forecast, the final result of the Colts led by Letters and the Pelicans headed by Eyebrows may be slightly over 50%, unless the two teams make the next big jump or they play like Westbrook last season A historic season, or they will be unlikely to become MVP's top contenders.
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